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Trading Card Craze

Pokémon trading cards are flying off shelves and skyrocketing in price as enthusiasts rush to collect ‘em all

November 2021
By Lauren J. Young

Courtesy of Dani Sanchez (Dani Sanchez); Shutterstock.com (All Other Images)

Dani Sanchez

Dani Sanchez buzzes with anticipation when tearing open the silver foil wrapping of a new pack of Pokémon trading cards. “It just feels like Christmas morning,” Dani says. A pack could contain a rare holographic Pokémon or an unlucky draw of common cards. “You never know what you’re going to get,” they add.

For the past 25 years, fans have tried to catch ’em all by playing Pokémon video games. In 1998, Pokémon trading cards were first released in English. The deck-building card game lets players battle each other with their favorite Pokémon or trade individual cards, which feature the colorful creatures. Today, Pokémon cards are more popular than ever.

Dani Sanchez loves Pokémon trading cards. Opening a new pack “feels like Christmas morning,” they say. A pack could contain common cards—or it could contain something rare, like a holographic Pokémon. “You never know what you’re going to get,” Dani adds.

Pokémon video games have attracted fans for the past 25 years. In 1998, the first English-language Pokémon card game was released. Each card features a colorful Pokémon creature. Players can battle each other with their favorite Pokémon or trade individual cards.

Dani, whose YouTube channel is called SuperDuperDani, has been collecting Pokémon cards since elementary school. Now 25, Dani continues to collect new releases and original vintage cards—sharing stories and videos of exciting  finds with fans.

But now, both players and collectors are having a hard time getting their hands on new packs from stores. Demand spiked in October 2020, after influencers and celebrities started buying up cards and sharing their finds of rare, first edition cards on camera. The increased popularity along with card shortages due to the Covid-19 pandemic, led to skyrocketing prices.

Today, Pokémon cards are more popular than ever. Dani has been collecting them since elementary school. Dani is now 25 and hosts a YouTube channel called SuperDuperDani. They tell stories and share videos of exciting finds with fans.

But now, both players and collectors are having a hard time buying new Pokémon cards. That’s because influencers and celebrities have been buying up the cards and showing off rare ones on camera. That increased demand for Pokémon cards in 2020. Meanwhile, the Covid-19 pandemic resulted in card shortages, and prices skyrocketed.

Sales of Pokémon cards on eBay soared 574% between 2019 and 2020 in the U.S.

This surge in value also led to a surge in scalpers, who buy up card packs to resell for a profit. After overcrowding and fights broke out in stores, Walmart and Target temporarily stopped selling the cards. Dani is unsure if the prices will continue to rise or whether the fad will subside. They suspect that people who are snatching up cards to resell will eventually leave, while true fans will stick around.

“What’s kept me excited about Pokémon is the community around it,” Dani says. “They keep coming out with new artwork, new Pokémon, new cards to collect, and we can geek out about it all together.”

The surge in value also inspired scalpers. Those are people who buy up card packs and resell them for a profit. Walmart and Target temporarily stopped selling the cards because people were fighting over them. Dani doesn’t know whether card prices will continue to rise or whether the fad will die down soon. They suspect that the scalpers will eventually move on, while true Pokémon fans will stick around.

“What’s kept me excited about Pokémon is the community around it,” says Dani. “They keep coming out with new artwork, new Pokémon, new cards to collect, and we can geek out about it all together.”

USING PROBABILITY

When you know the experimental probability that an event will occur, you can use it to make a prediction. A prediction is something that you can reasonably expect to happen. Each Pokémon card has an experimental probability that tells you how likely it is to be drawn from a pack of cards.

EXAMPLE

In a new pack of Pokémon cards from a booster box, 3 in 11 cards will be uncommon. How many uncommon cards would you expect to get from a full booster box of 396 cards?

STEP 1

3 in 11: probability of pulling an uncommon card

396: total number of cards

STEP 2

Multiply the probability (written as a fraction) by the total population.

So out of 396 Pokémon cards, you would expect 108 to be uncommon.

USING PROBABILITY

When you know the experimental probability that an event will occur, you can use it to make a prediction. A prediction is something that you can reasonably expect to happen. Each Pokémon card has an experimental probability that tells you how likely it is to be drawn from a pack of cards.

EXAMPLE

In a new pack of Pokémon cards from a booster box, 3 in 11 cards will be uncommon. How many uncommon cards would you expect to get from a full booster box of 396 cards?

STEP 1

3 in 11: probability of pulling an uncommon card

396: total number of cards

STEP 2

Multiply the probability (written as a fraction) by the total population.

So out of 396 Pokémon cards, you would expect 108 to be uncommon.

There are 36 packs of Pokémon cards in a booster box. A typical pack has 10 cards plus a bonus card with the following assortment:

6 common cards
3 uncommon cards
1 rare card
1 bonus card

Make predictions of the chance of drawing various Pokémon trading cards. Round answers to the nearest whole number. Record your work and answers on our answer sheet.

There are 36 packs of Pokémon cards in a booster box. A typical pack has 10 cards plus a bonus card with the following assortment:

6 common cards
3 uncommon cards
1 rare card
1 bonus card

Make predictions of the chance of drawing various Pokémon trading cards. Round answers to the nearest whole number. Record your work and answers on our answer sheet.

When the first Pokémon card sets were released in the U.S., about 1 in 3 packs had a holographic card. How many holographic cards would you expect to draw from a booster box with 36 packs of cards?

When the first Pokémon card sets were released in the U.S., about 1 in 3 packs had a holographic card. How many holographic cards would you expect to draw from a booster box with 36 packs of cards?

Shining Pokémon are rare, sparkly cards. Magikarp and Gyrados were the first characters on shining Pokémon trading cards. Collectors estimate that there was a 1 in 18 probability of getting a card with one of these two rare characters in a pack. How many would you expect to find in 400 packs?

Shining Pokémon are rare, sparkly cards. Magikarp and Gyrados were the first characters on shining Pokémon trading cards. Collectors estimate that there was a 1 in 18 probability of getting a card with one of these two rare characters in a pack. How many would you expect to find in 400 packs?

The first secret rare card in the U.S. was Dark Raichu, the corrupted version of Pikachu’s evolution. But the card wasn’t on any official checklist. Collectors estimate that a Team Rocket pack had a 1 in 108 chance of having a Dark Raichu. How many Dark Raichus would you expect to find in 500 packs?

The first secret rare card in the U.S. was Dark Raichu, the corrupted version of Pikachu’s evolution. But the card wasn’t on any official checklist. Collectors estimate that a Team Rocket pack had a 1 in 108 chance of having a Dark Raichu. How many Dark Raichus would you expect to find in 500 packs?

The Pokémon Sword and Shield’s Chilling Reign set has the Alternate Art VMAX card—the rarest of cards. There is 1 in every 454 packs. How many of these cards are likely to be in 1,500 packs?

The Pokémon Sword and Shield’s Chilling Reign set has the Alternate Art VMAX card—the rarest of cards. There is 1 in every 454 packs. How many of these cards are likely to be in 1,500 packs?

In 2021, the Shining Fates set had new shiny Pokémon cards. There’s a 1 in  271 probability of getting a shiny VMAX Charizard in a pack. How many would you expect to find in 1,000 packs?

In 2021, the Shining Fates set had new shiny Pokémon cards. There’s a 1 in  271 probability of getting a shiny VMAX Charizard in a pack. How many would you expect to find in 1,000 packs?

In the Hidden Fates card set, there’s a 1 in 391 probability of getting a shiny Charizard in a pack. How many packs would you have to open in order to find 2 packs containing a shiny Charizard?

In the Hidden Fates card set, there’s a 1 in 391 probability of getting a shiny Charizard in a pack. How many packs would you have to open in order to find 2 packs containing a shiny Charizard?

Continue the Learning Journey

  • Explore all the different Pokémon cards by visiting the Pokémon website’s index, the Pokédex. Then design your own Pokémon card. Be sure to include a name, special characteristics or features, at least one attack, and the Pokémon’s strengths and weaknesses..
  • Find the probabilities of randomly drawing different types of cards from a traditional deck of playing cards. Pick a suit, a color, a number, and a face card to find the probabilities for. Which probabilities are the same? Which are different?

Continue the Learning Journey

  • Explore all the different Pokémon cards by visiting the Pokémon website’s index, the Pokédex. Then design your own Pokémon card. Be sure to include a name, special characteristics or features, at least one attack, and the Pokémon’s strengths and weaknesses..
  • Find the probabilities of randomly drawing different types of cards from a traditional deck of playing cards. Pick a suit, a color, a number, and a face card to find the probabilities for. Which probabilities are the same? Which are different?
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